I'm not so sure that this will happen. I think that right now, people still like physical mediums and will probably for the near future. The cheapness of Blu-Ray drives in PCs, shows that it is becoming a widely adopted format. HD pictures are still not mainstream in many households, so not including a disk drive might be a blow to the next xbox. Forcing people to do digital distribution (while cheaper for publishers) is not ideal, customer-wise.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-09-going-solid-will-the-next-xbox-ditch-the-disc
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